Well, it's yet to be determined if the win of the House will make Democrats more complacent, and less energized, to get out the vote for 2020. That's another real possibility. We won't know until the election happens. If the last 2 years have taught us anything, it's that the electorate is unpredictable. So, in that respect, I'm going to side with the likelihood of the historical precedence of incumbent presidents nearly always winning reelections, even after devastating midterm losses. En masse, people tend to shy away from volatility and change. Rather the evil you know than the one you don't.
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